The holiday shopping season results are in, and it was a record-breaking year — especially for digital sales. Our data showed online sales reached an all-time high of $1.2 trillion globally, with U.S. consumers contributing $282 billion.
Not only was this year a record-breaking sales year, but our research showed that consumers adopted many new buying behaviors that defied expectations. Throughout 2024, shoppers budgeted and saved as they waited for the right moment to buy the goods they wanted.
In fact, two in three shoppers told us last spring they were waiting until Cyber Week to make splurge purchases. They did indeed make the most of Cyber Week, despite the fact that discounts were not as deep as they’d hoped or we’d expected. Based on an analysis of 1.5 billion shoppers and nearly two trillion page views across the Salesforce platform, our annual report found that global online sales during Cyber Week grew 6% year over year (YoY), reaching $314.9 billion.
Although Cyber Week was the main event, online buying started slightly early, with both the week before Cyber Week and the week after growing 15% and 10% year over year, respectively. Black Friday proved itself the cornerstone of the shopping season by driving $74.4 billion in global digital sales. Then, once they started spending on those big purchases, shoppers kept spending, stocking up on items they’d been waiting all year to buy. Strong year-over-year order volume growth indicates that even modest discounts were enough to convince cautious consumers to open their wallets and drive up demand.
So the big question is, what do the holiday shopping season results predict for retail in 2025?
5 takeaways from 2024’s holiday shopping season results:
- Margin pressure kept retailers from offering deep discounts
- $60 billion of global online sales were influenced by AI and agents
- Cautious consumers defined holiday demand
- Mobile usage reached new peaks
- Returns are on the rise
What’s Next for Retail in 2025
Takeaway #1: Margin pressure kept retailers from offering deep discounts
Earlier this year, our data found 40% of shoppers were buying less, and 85% were switching brands to lower-priced goods. We then predicted retailers would discount deeply this holiday season in order to motivate consumer demand and compete against Chinese shopping marketplaces. But we didn’t see those higher discounts, likely because retailers faced strong margin pressures as a result of a 97% increase in supply chain costs. The resulting tight margins were a concern throughout 2024.
Because of this, discounts were not as deep as shoppers hoped, with a global average discount rate at 26% for Cyber Week, down 1% from last year. We did, however, see 65% of orders using a promotion code at checkout. There was soft discounting over Cyber Week, followed by higher discounts on the Tuesday after Cyber Monday as retailers likely looked to drum up more demand. In the U.S., the Tuesday after Cyber Week was the highest discounting day of the entire season.
But soft discounts didn’t discourage consumer demand. Our holiday shopping season results showed strong growth in order volumes: People weren’t just spending more money, they were also buying more goods. Global average order value was $104.20, up 1% year over year, while the average units sold per transaction was flat compared to 2023. In addition, global online order volumes increased 2% over 2023. This indicates that the growth we saw this holiday season wasn’t because consumers were spending more money. They were actually buying more goods – a stark divergence from what we’ve witnessed since inflation began in 2022.
What this means for 2025: Despite the lack of deep discounts, the record-breaking holiday shopping season indicates consumers are still willing to spend, but they’re doing so more thoughtfully. We could see them make more purchases throughout the year, not just during holiday sales, if retailers offer more frequent, smaller promotions to keep shoppers engaged and coming back. Additionally, investing in customer loyalty programs and enhancing the overall shopping experience can help build stronger relationships and drive consistent sales. To capitalize on this, use AI agents to optimize and personalize the shopping experience, simplify loyalty programs, and drive consistent sales.
Takeaway #2: $229 billion of global online sales were influenced by AI and agents
Global online sales for the holiday season were up 3% year over year, representing $1.2 trillion in total online holiday spend. U.S. online sales were up 4% year over year during this period, amounting to $282 billion in sales. Significantly, 19% of all orders were influenced by AI between November first and the end of December, up from 17% in 2023. Retailers who invested in AI and agents this holiday season were able to reap even greater revenues during this critical shopping period through personalized promotions, recommendations, and support.
AI has been an important part of the holiday shopping season for many years now, particularly AI-powered product recommendations. But this year our data shows retail use of generative AI features like agents increased 25% during the holiday season compared to September and October 2024. This indicates the industry is leaning into this new technology, with exciting results.
With AI agents, the impact of AI is accelerating: We saw 6% more holiday sales influenced by AI than last holiday season, including $60 billion in Cyber Week alone. Retailers used generative AI and agents 18% more during Cyber Week than the previous week, likely to drive efficiency and personalization for customers through product recommendations, targeted offers, and conversational customer service support. Agentforce alone generated 1.67 million Large Language Model (LLM) replies and decisions to execute actions for retailers during Cyber Week, and Salesforce powered nearly 60 billion AI-powered product recommendations across Cyber Week, up 21% year over year. We also saw a 32.2% year-over-year increase as consumers leaned into AI-powered chatbots during the week. In all, AI and agents influenced $229 billion in global holiday sales across the season.
Additionally, AI and agents upleveled the consumer experience. Retailers like Saks doubled down on the use of AI, including agents, to power shopping experiences this season. Shoppers used AI- and agent-powered chat for customer service 38% more during Cyber Week than they did in the previous week. Retailers leveraging the power of agents in their customer service experience saw a 2% higher conversion rate compared to retailers who didn’t, with a 15% higher conversion rate reached over Cyber Weekend.
What this means for 2025: Retailers should expect the importance of AI agents to greatly increase this year, as consumers value personalized shopping experiences more than ever. Building personal shopper agents that can offer tailored recommendations, assist with product searches, and provide real-time support will be key to maintaining and growing customer loyalty and increasing conversion rates.
Takeaway #3: Cautious consumers defined holiday demand
Every year we wonder when shoppers will start their holiday buying. Some say shopping is starting earlier and earlier every year, but in May we predicted that demand would move back to Cyber Week this year. The answer is somewhere in the middle.
Demand did move closer to Cyber Week, but it was the seven days immediately before that saw the biggest change. Consumers held out at the very beginning of November, waiting for Cyber Week deals to begin. But as deals started to ramp up as Cyber Week approached, shoppers started buying. The share of this season’s sales happening during pre-Cyber Week grew 10% this year. Consumers were likely concerned about shipping delays due to the later-than-usual Thanksgiving holiday.
In fact, Cyber Week’s share of the season’s total sales volumes was flat compared to last year’s. Why is this important? Last year, Cyber Week grew its share of sales. Trying to pinpoint when shoppers will buy each year sometimes feels like a moving target. What is most important is that shoppers are paying attention early in the season. Engaging early, respectfully, and clearly with your audience, using data and AI to understand their unique buying patterns, and being ready to meet them on the channels and devices they choose is the key to winning the season.
But the shopping didn’t stop at Cyber Week: Online sales continued to grow the two weeks immediately after as consumers stocked up not only on gifts, but the items they’d been waiting for all year. Global online sales post-Cyber Week grew 10% year over year and 8% during the mid-season week. However, consumers were clearly tapped out after the ground shipping cutoff. Online sales fell 25% year over year the week before Christmas, probably due to consumers planning well, buying early, and wanting to start enjoying their holidays.
What this means for 2025: These holiday shopping season results suggest that consumers will continue to be cost-conscious and look for the best deals even though they are willing to make purchases. To succeed, retailers should use customer data to predict and respond to these shopping patterns, using a unified commerce strategy that offers seamless experiences across all channels. Meeting shoppers where they are, whether online or in store, and providing timely, personalized offers can drive sales throughout the year.
Takeaway #4: Mobile usage reached new peaks
It’s important to note that mobile commerce picked up its pace this year. As consumers of all ages grow increasingly comfortable with mobile shopping and the mobile buying experience gets easier, the gap between mobile traffic and mobile orders is narrowing. While mobile traffic was relatively steady, we saw significant gains in mobile order share. Global mobile order share grew from 67% to 69% of all orders and mobile wallet usage grew 10%, flattening the purchasing funnel. This means the mobile buying experience is getting better and consumers are more comfortable making big purchases from the small screen.
Across the entire holiday shopping season, mobile accounted for $828 billion in sales globally and $194.6 billion in the United States. But what is most compelling is what happened on Christmas Day. Every year mobile usage peaks for the year on December 25th, and it is a precursor for what’s to come by the end of the following year. This year, mobile usage peaked to well above average on Christmas Day, where 79% of orders were placed on a mobile phone. Based on this data, we can expect mobile devices to drive close to eight in 10 online orders by the end of 2025.
Social in-app shopping also made a splash. We found 21% of consumers reported that they had made at least one purchase on TikTok Shop in 2024. What’s more, 20% of retailers’ holiday sales were captured on in-app social commerce platforms for those investing in these platforms. With the hoilday season being the pressure tester for the new year, one thing is clear — the shopper is more mobile and social than ever. Optimizing all your commerce strategies with this in mind will be key in 2025.
What does this mean for 2025? Retailers should rethink their marketing mix and social strategy to prioritize mobile experiences, integrating AI-driven chatbots and personalized recommendations to enhance user engagement. By optimizing their online and in-store experiences for mobile users, retailers can drive higher conversion rates and customer satisfaction.
Takeaway #5: Returns are on the rise
Returns were on the rise this year, after a brief reprieve in 2023. Why? The lack of deep discounts, mentioned above, meant shoppers were more vigilant about finding the best price. And if they couldn’t do that on the first try, they were willing to return merchandise if they found it cheaper elsewhere. This was in addition to more predictable shopper return behavior such as bracketing and wardrobing, which increases the volume of items returned and strains retailers’ reverse logistics systems.
As consumers carried out their own price adjustments, the return rate for the holiday season reached 10.3%, up from 7.9% last year. The return rate peaked the week before Christmas and Boxing Week at 17.7%, up from 10% last year. Retailers’ efforts to enhance customer satisfaction and build trust through extended return windows and hassle-free processes also contributed to this trend.
What this means for 2025: Looking ahead to 2025, we can expect returns to remain high. This will prompt retailers to further refine their return policies and logistics to manage the volume efficiently and maintain a positive customer experience. To address this issue, use AI and agents to provide more accurate product information and personalized recommendations, reducing the likelihood of customers receiving items that don’t meet their expectations. You can also use AI-powered return management systems to streamline the return process, making it more efficient and less costly for your business.
Consumer behavior during the 2024 holiday shopping season revealed savvy and cautious shoppers who lean on technology and mobile devices to make informed decisions. Despite the initial hesitation, consumers were willing to buy even without significant discounts, but they waited for the best deals, indicating a high sensitivity to value. For the year ahead, use AI, agents, and unified commerce to build a cohesive, data-driven strategy that enhances the customer experience across all touchpoints while adding personalization and value.
2024 Salesforce holiday insights and predictions methodology
Powered by Agentforce, Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, and Service Cloud, Salesforce analyzed aggregated data to produce holiday insights from the activity of more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across more than 89 countries, with a focus on 18 key markets: the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), Switzerland, Latin America (LAM), the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Eastern Europe, Belgium, and the Nordics. This battery of benchmarks provides a deep look into the last nine quarters and the current state of digital commerce. Several factors are applied to extrapolate macroeconomic figures for the broader retail industry. These and these results are not indicative of Salesforce performance.
The prediction data that we present are from proprietary Salesforce research. The calculations we use blend first-party and third-party data, as well as several market assumptions, to generate the data points we present.